The assassination could not have been a better life preserver to the campaign of Sen. Joesph Biden, whose campaign message has consistently been a resume of Senate accomplishments domestically and abroad. Biden’s campaign is about experience, and unlike the campaign of colleague Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton, Biden has been regarded by all the candidates as a tested veteran of foreign affairs. His high profile status as Senate Foreign Relations Cmte. Chair certainly gives him the credibility to discuss the situation in Pakistan with authority. Time and time again he outlined the urgency of addressing Pakistan in Democratic debates, and has long been met with def ears.
But no one likes the class nerd who says ‘I told ya so’, especially in presidential politics. Real Clear Politics has averaged Sen. Biden’s support at 5.4%–certainly not in real contention for victory in the Iowa caucuses.
All along Biden supporters have asserted the meaninglessness of poll numbers. Biden himself believes that ultimately when voters make their decisions they turn to experience instead of campaign slogans. I would argue that it’s irresponsible for a campaign to be completely dismissive of political realities–for Biden that reality being low poll numbers.
But the assassination of Bhutto could not have been better for the Senator from Delaware. Experience, experience, experience: that’s what defines the old, gray-haired, white guy in the race.
Less than a week until the Iowa caucuses, and the Biden campaign has started going negative, something that terribly disappoints me. If Biden’s campaign relied on experience so much and disregarded poll numbers to the extent of questioning their credibility, why are they going on the offense in the wake of a terrible tragedy? I would assert it’s because Biden now sees an opening, and it doesn’t matter that he’s using that political window of opportunity in the wake of great tragedy, all that matters is victory.
On Clinton and Obama, reports the Huffington Post:
In a post-event interview with The Huffington Post, Biden at first refused to specify which candidate he was referring to when he said they weren’t making sense on Pakistan. He noted that front-runners Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama, both of whom issued brief statements earlier in the day lamenting Bhutto’s murder, were “both good people” but didn’t have his breadth of foreign policy experience.
On Richardson specifically:
“Richardson said that [Pakistani President] Musharraf should step down and make way for a coalition government,” Biden said. “But what coalition? There isn’t any. What’s he talking about?”
Interesting he would attack Richardson so directly. Despite presenting different policy positions in regards to Pakistan, it may be part of a broader political struggle. Both Biden and Richardson are in the second tier–Richardson polling ahead of 5th place Biden in most Iowa polls. Could Biden be specifically attacking Richardson to pick off a few of his supporters?
Just a few hours after Bhutto’s assassination, Biden had a press release not only up on his website but in big bold letters on the homepage reading, “BIDEN CALLS FOR NEW PAKISTAN POLICY.” He remains the only Democratic candidate to address the issue so visibly on his web page.
Here’s the sobering reality: Biden is not going to win Iowa. He’s not even going to place in the top three because he just doesn’t have the ground infrastructure to compete with the rival campaigns of Obama, Edwards and Clinton. This message of experience in the end won’t matter, even if voters have a renewed appreciation for “experience” in light of events in Pakistan when they caucus. The media saturation of Obama = change, Clinton = experience, sets up those two at opposing dichotomies, and excludes Biden from the discussion. His lack of association with the political slogans his campaign has so disdained will ultimately come back to bite him in the ass, and though he now fights to pin himself as the true experienced candidate with big bold letters, press conferences and “I told ya so” rhetoric, his campaign collapses upon itself because of poor infrastructure. For him to be viable, he needs those slogans because slogans resonate with caucus-goers. I can’t help but think that if this happened a month ago, could Biden be in contention? Eh, probably not.
