Where’s the Bounce?

Hillary Clinton’s website currently says, “Keep the momentum going!” Her 3% victory gives her campaign the right to claim that she’s building momentum. But is it?

I would say (as once released in a memo by Clinton Chief Strategist Mark Penn following Obama’s Iowa victory) “Where’s the bounce?” Where is Hillary’s bounce after winning New Hampshire?

Barack Obama was endorsed by the Nevada SEIU and the major Culinary Workers Union that represents over 60,000 union members. Next Saturday, they will surely be a force in Nevada’s democratic primary. As it stands, they’re one of the major political aparatuses in the state of Nevada, and with their ground support working in conjunction with Obama’s all ready impressive Nevada field operation, I see a serious race building up in the nation’s first western caucus.

And today Obama was endorsed by former Democratic presidential nominee Sen. John Kerry (D-MA). A huge endorsement that lends the Obama campaign the support of more establishment Democrats. Adding to Kerry was the endorsement of South Dakota Sen. Tim Johnson, and Rep. George Miller of California. Says MSNBC’s Chuck Todd:

California congressman George Miller (D) is also backing Obama’s presidential campaign. This is perhaps the closest thing to getting a Nancy Pelosi endorsement as you can come without actually getting it. Miller is incredibly close with her politically. He wouldn’t be doing this without her consent of sorts.

Tons of endorsements following his New Hampshire loss: unions, senators and a representative with a close connection to the Speaker of the House. But where are Hillary’s endorsements? Where’s her bounce?

Certainly not in the fund raising battle. In the first 8 days of this month, Obama raised $8 million dollars compared with Hillary’s $3 million. The morning after his loss in New Hampshire, he received $500,000 in contributions online.

And lets be honest, no one in the press wants to see Hillary win. No one wants to report that the establishment candidate trumped the little guy. It’s no wonder they hyped the polls and coverage in the days leading up to New Hampshire… it’s just not a good story.

And in the realm of poll numbers- traditionally after a victory in an early state, your candidate makes gains. Hillary’s win may have slowed Obama’s momentum, but it certainly has not killed it. He is still leading by wide margins in South Carolina and his field operation in Nevada is growing stronger. (Still no polls out of Nevada yet).

Insider Advantage, Jan. 9, 2007
Obama 40%
Clinton 33%

Rasmussen, Jan. 9, 2007
Obama 42%
Clinton 30%

Honestly, Hillary will have to destroy him with win after win to kill his momentum. She can claim she has it, but in reality, she has neither the poll numbers, nor the endorsements, nor the finances to demonstrate it. Obama is a runaway train in the Democratic party; he’s emblematic of a movement and I don’t know if the Clinton’s can stop it.

I guess we’ll see.

The Pelosi Factor

It was awkward. As House Democrats emerged from their conference to select a new Majority Leader for the 110th United States’ Congress, House Speaker-elect Nancy Pelosi was visibly shocked. In the hotly contested race for House Majority Leader, Pelosi backed Pennsylvania Congressman Jack Murtha as opposed to Rep. Steny Hoyer of Maryland. In a race where both sides claimed they had a clear majority of votes to win, Pelosi-backed Murtha was defeated by a 2:1 ratio.

Pelosi and Hoyer put on a smile, waved and stood for the cameras, but this did not alleviate the awkwardness of the situation. When Murtha shook Hoyer’s hand, it was only for one moment, at which point he concededly walked away.

For Pelosi, this is but one little bump in the road for what lies ahead. One would think that being the first female Speaker of the House would be pressure enough, but the San Francisco liberal has far more to live up to. She is all that stands between a Republican White House and a Democratic Majority, and as Speaker, she will be able to subpoena administration officials (including the President) and call investigations into the lead up to the War in Iraq. She will have the digression over the direction of Congress- in whether it works on a bipartisan level or divides on party lines. It is this power, that determines whether Democrats will hold on to their majority in 2008.

Pelosi has a lot riding on her performance, and it will require her to step away from the intense liberalism of which she ascribes to actually accomplish something in this new Congress. Americans do deserve to know what the president’s intentions were in the lead up to Iraq, but they also deserve comprehensive immigration reform, better educational systems and more for our returning veterans. While it is true that I believe that a divided government is better than a united Republican government, it does not mean that I believe a divided Congress is incapable of doing anything. To the contrary, bipartisan cooperation is encouraged and though Congress’ effectiveness is diminished, legislation is more frequently passed that reflects both sides of the issue.

Perhaps now is the best time for Mr. Bush to push his Guest Worker Program. I personally, have been a proponent of this plan to allow guest workers into this country, but his own Republican party suppressed the bill, and it never was passed. Now with a Democratic Congress, Bush may be able to initiate this program, perhaps reviving his and Congress’ reputation.

Bipartisan bills and Congressional investigations: this is what we may see in the coming two years. And while American’s deserve to know the truth about Iraq, they will want action. For the Democratic Congress to be successful in these next two years, they will need to work with the president, and produce bills. The last Congress failed to pass Social Security, Immigration and Ethics Reform- and lost the trust with the American people with scandal after scandal.

What Pelosi must recognize is that her reputation will not go down in history as being the first female Speaker of the House, but whether or not she will be able to maintain a Democratic majority in 2008. Pelosi and the Democrats have a chance to prove themselves, and if they do Americans will reward them with a Democratic Congress and Executive in 2008. Failing to do so may reverse the current Congress- and so in lies the pressure Pelosi faces. It will be tough for her to work with the President when she and the Democrats are bloodthirsty for answers about Iraq, but would Americans think Congress is wasting its time investigating the lead up to war? Do Americans prefer action to answers? Pelosi has several questions to answer, interests to settle and wants to fulfill. Ultimately, her success will be incumbent upon her keeping a level head, working bipartisanly, and asking herself whether or not she wants to truly investigate the President.