March Senate Predictions

I’m going to forecast some Senate races in 2008. These are obviously extremely preliminary, but early polling data can give us a rough estimate over what to expect in the fall. And I decided to be gutsy and not lump them into “Democratic favored” or “leans” categories…

I’ll keep up with Senate race predictions on my new “Senate Races” section.

Democrats Keep: (11 seats)

Pryor (D-AK), Biden (D-DE), Durbin (D-IL), Kerry (D-MA), Levin (D-MI), Reed (D-RI), Rockefeller (D-WV), Harkin (D-IA), Baucus (D-MT), Lautenberg (D-NJ), Johnson (D-SD)

Republicans Keep: (14 seats)

Stevens (R-AK), Sessions (R-AL), Chambliss (R-GA), McConnell (R-KY), Wicker (R-MS), Dole (R-NC), Inhofe (R-OK), Graham (R-SC), Alexander (R-TN), Cornyn (R-TX), Roberts (R-KA), Cochran (R-MS), Enzi (R-WY), Barrasso (R-WY)

Democratic Takeover: Close races but are currently trending Democratic takeover (4 seats)

Norm Coleman (R-MN) to Al Franken, John Sununu (R-NH) to Jeanne Shaheen, Pete Dominici (R-NM) to Tom Udell, Open Seat to Mark Warner (D-VA)

Republican Takeover (1 seat)

Mary Landreau (D-LA) to John Kennedy

Too Close: Close races with no clear front-runner (3 seats)

Bob Schaffer vs. Tom Udall- Colorado, Gordon Smith (R-OR) vs. No Clear Challanger, Susan Collins (R-ME) vs. Tom Allen

I put in the “too close” category because there are truly a few races that will be very close in November, or at least they’re trending that way right now. Republicans Smith, Collins, Sununu and Coleman are vulnerable while Democrats have their eyes on open seats in Virginia & Colorado. If everything goes as planned for the Democrats, they could walk away with a net gain of 5 seats in November, giving them a 56-44 majority in the Senate. It currently looks like, unfortunately, Mary Landreau (D-LA) will lose her seat. In the after math of Hurricane Katrina, thousands of New Orleans residents fled Louisiana, depressing the city’s Democratic electorate. Landreau squeaked by in 2002 (before Katrina). Now it looks like without the base that elected her, she will be unable to win in November. That’s the only bad news for Democrats–and the only reason she is vulnerable is because of the political implications of a natural disaster. Republicans are certainly going to be on the defensive this year.

Once again, this is where I stand as of right now. I’ll post more in depth info about some of these races and new predictions as the year progresses. Public opinion changes, events happen, controversies erupt: you never know what can swing an election.

The 2008 Electoral Map

In the first national poll of presidential preferences, SurveyUSA asked 30,000 respondents in all 50 states, if the election were held today, who would you vote for.

The Results:
Both Democrats Beat John McCain
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________
Hillary Clinton 276
John McCain 262

States Democrats Pick Up:
West Virginia, Arkansas, New Mexico, Ohio, Florida

States Democrats Lose:
Washington, Oregon, Iowa, Michigan, New Hampshire

View Clinton/McCain Electoral Map
__________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Barack Obama 280
John McCain 258

States Democrats Pick Up:
Nevada, Colorado, New Mexico, North Dakota, Nebraska, Iowa, Ohio, Virginia

States Democrats Lose:
Florida, Pennsylvania, New Jersey

View Obama/McCain Electoral Map

I’m always skeptical of national polls, but it’s interesting that this is the first conducted in all 50 states for the general election.

Montana: Burns (R) vs. Tester (D)

Republican incumbent Conrad Burns has been labeled the second most vulnerable senator in Congress (next to Santorum). However, if polling is any indication of a candidate’s performance, Burns has been performing much better than previously thought. Just a few weeks ago polls across Montana indicated that Burns trailed Democratic challenger Jon Tester by 10 points. Now, a recent Rasmussen poll of October 26 puts Burns trailing only 4 points 47% to 51%.

No Democrat or Republican thought Montana would be in play, but it is. Traditionally, we’ve often considered it to be part of the “grand ol’conservative west” because of its rugged lifestyle and rural pastures. Demographically, Democrats have preformed terribly in rural areas, which comes to many as a surprise that Montana is actually a swing state. It was only Bill Clinton who could last pull off a victory here in 1996 (but remember that Clinton beat Dole by a large margin). So what Democrat has the moxy to swing Montana? Jon Tester.

Jon Tester is the current President of the Montana State Senate. Born in Big Sandy, Montana, he earned his Bachelor’s Degree in music from the University of Great Falls. Many distinguish Tester from his haircut, or missing three fingers and his image conjures that of the tough woodsman.

Tester’s campaign in Montana has been successful firstly just because of that image. When you look at Tester you think of a person who is all but a U.S. Senator, and his campaign has even made a slogan of it, “Shouldn’t the Senate look a little bit more like Montana?” Secondly, he has run a common sense campaign painting Burns as “out of touch with Montana.” This is poison; Montana preserves a whole culture that is separate from the country. It is isolated in many regards, explains Governor Brian Schweitzer on CNN, “We don’t bring big name politicians up here namely because they don’t understand Montana and Montana doesn’t understand them.” So it is easy to see how Tester’s campaign can be so successful when Burns was connected with the Abramoff Scandal (Burns did after all take Abramoff’s money).

Finally, Tester is successful because of his positions. Like other Democrats in this election cycle, he is taking more mainstream views, and reconciling his beliefs with those of Montanans. For abortion, Tester is pro-choice but his campaign website states that it should be kept, “legal, safe and rare.” He is a proponent of alternative energy, a critic of Iraq, and against the Bush Administration. It will be interesting to see if Burns can catch up more in the coming week- but given the momentum of Tester’s campaign, I definitely see Burns retiring to his Helena ranch for a long winter.