The 2008 Electoral Map

In the first national poll of presidential preferences, SurveyUSA asked 30,000 respondents in all 50 states, if the election were held today, who would you vote for.

The Results:
Both Democrats Beat John McCain
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Hillary Clinton 276
John McCain 262

States Democrats Pick Up:
West Virginia, Arkansas, New Mexico, Ohio, Florida

States Democrats Lose:
Washington, Oregon, Iowa, Michigan, New Hampshire

View Clinton/McCain Electoral Map
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Barack Obama 280
John McCain 258

States Democrats Pick Up:
Nevada, Colorado, New Mexico, North Dakota, Nebraska, Iowa, Ohio, Virginia

States Democrats Lose:
Florida, Pennsylvania, New Jersey

View Obama/McCain Electoral Map

I’m always skeptical of national polls, but it’s interesting that this is the first conducted in all 50 states for the general election.

Missouri: Jim Talent (R) vs. Claire McCaskill (D)

Like Virginia, Missouri is an intensely close race. Three-term Republican incumbent Jim Talent is fighting for his political life against Missouri State Auditor and Democrat Claire McCaskill. McCaskill is not a novice to Missouri politics; she lost a primary battle against the Democratic governor in 2004, and has since has served as the auditor of the state. Unlike Virginia, the political mud slinging hasn’t been as profound, but this is not to say that Democrats and Republicans haven’t poured millions into this crucial race.

Democrats believe that Talent is vulnerable. Polls justify this assumption as since September of 2005 when McCaskill entered the race- polls have shown each with remarkably close numbers (often within 2-4 points of one another). Now in November of 2006, it seems that McCaskill is polling no differently than she was last year at this time; last November a Rasmussen poll showed McCaskill with 47% of the vote, as opposed to Talent’s 45%. The most recent Rasmussen poll of October 30 has Talent trailing McCaskill 48-47%.

The very fact that polling agencies have been monitoring this election is evidence of how long Democrats have sensed Talent’s vulnerability. One would assume that Talent would have understood this last year, and subsequently have taken more moderate stances on the issues in order to swing moderate votes. Instead, he voted for legislation banning stem cell research, and against a raise in the federal minimum wage. Talent’s opposition to these issues may hurt him at the ballot box, as both are regarded as Propositions A & B in a Missouri referendum.

Talent in recent days has received tremendous support from the National Republican Party. Despite his remarkably low approval rating, President George W. Bush appeared with Talent just this morning in an effort to drive the Republican support on Election Day. The Democrats have responded by flooding Missouri with their resources as well, but given the unpopularity of the Republican Congress, their need to project their message has been replaced by a simple disdain of the status quo.

Missouri is one of the few states where stem cell research has taken center stage; actor and Parkinson’s disease sufferer Michael J. Fox aired in a campaign commercial criticizing Senator Talent for opposing federally funded research. The Republicans remained quiet regarding the commercial, but conservative talk-show radio host Rush Limbaugh described Fox’s movements during the ad as “[…] exaggerating the effects of the disease […]” Limbaugh later apologized while adding that “When you wade into political life you have every right to say what you want, but you cannot in turn argue that no one has the right to take you on.”

Whatever the impact single issues will play November 7th, I find it remarkable that presently Senator Talent has a warchest of $19,602,725 plus $6,921,577 of his personal finances to run his campaign as opposed to McCaskill’s $4,572,707 campaign dollars and only $2,684,766 of personal finances. Talent has outspent McCaskill, and despite the amount of money he’s spending to keep his seat, the race has only been within one or two points of each candidate. Missouri is as good as a coin toss- heads or tails folks- and we’ll see on Nov. 7th since it’s definitely a battleground state for control of the US Senate