March Senate Predictions

I’m going to forecast some Senate races in 2008. These are obviously extremely preliminary, but early polling data can give us a rough estimate over what to expect in the fall. And I decided to be gutsy and not lump them into “Democratic favored” or “leans” categories…

I’ll keep up with Senate race predictions on my new “Senate Races” section.

Democrats Keep: (11 seats)

Pryor (D-AK), Biden (D-DE), Durbin (D-IL), Kerry (D-MA), Levin (D-MI), Reed (D-RI), Rockefeller (D-WV), Harkin (D-IA), Baucus (D-MT), Lautenberg (D-NJ), Johnson (D-SD)

Republicans Keep: (14 seats)

Stevens (R-AK), Sessions (R-AL), Chambliss (R-GA), McConnell (R-KY), Wicker (R-MS), Dole (R-NC), Inhofe (R-OK), Graham (R-SC), Alexander (R-TN), Cornyn (R-TX), Roberts (R-KA), Cochran (R-MS), Enzi (R-WY), Barrasso (R-WY)

Democratic Takeover: Close races but are currently trending Democratic takeover (4 seats)

Norm Coleman (R-MN) to Al Franken, John Sununu (R-NH) to Jeanne Shaheen, Pete Dominici (R-NM) to Tom Udell, Open Seat to Mark Warner (D-VA)

Republican Takeover (1 seat)

Mary Landreau (D-LA) to John Kennedy

Too Close: Close races with no clear front-runner (3 seats)

Bob Schaffer vs. Tom Udall- Colorado, Gordon Smith (R-OR) vs. No Clear Challanger, Susan Collins (R-ME) vs. Tom Allen

I put in the “too close” category because there are truly a few races that will be very close in November, or at least they’re trending that way right now. Republicans Smith, Collins, Sununu and Coleman are vulnerable while Democrats have their eyes on open seats in Virginia & Colorado. If everything goes as planned for the Democrats, they could walk away with a net gain of 5 seats in November, giving them a 56-44 majority in the Senate. It currently looks like, unfortunately, Mary Landreau (D-LA) will lose her seat. In the after math of Hurricane Katrina, thousands of New Orleans residents fled Louisiana, depressing the city’s Democratic electorate. Landreau squeaked by in 2002 (before Katrina). Now it looks like without the base that elected her, she will be unable to win in November. That’s the only bad news for Democrats–and the only reason she is vulnerable is because of the political implications of a natural disaster. Republicans are certainly going to be on the defensive this year.

Once again, this is where I stand as of right now. I’ll post more in depth info about some of these races and new predictions as the year progresses. Public opinion changes, events happen, controversies erupt: you never know what can swing an election.

Mississippi, Spitzer & Ferraro

Barack Obama won Mississippi last night by a significant margin, 61-37. He carried the African American vote 92-8, but lost the white vote 30-70. This is the most pronounced racial divide we’ve seen thus far. Exit Poll Results
Chuck Todd of MSNBC raised an interesting point this morning on Morning Joe… if Obama is the nominee, considering 350,000 people voted in MS’ Democratic Primary yesterday, could Obama tip the balance in Mississippi? 1/3 of the state’s electorate  is African American: if he could make inroads with traditional white Democrats, and carry the African American vote by 90-10 margins, could that flip Mississippi?

Couple other notes about news today:

1. What the hell is with Geraldine Ferraro?  Now there’s a blast from the past, a name you probably haven’t heard for 10…15 years? I think I’ve heard more about Geraldine Ferraro in the past 24 hours than I’ve heard in my life. Look… she’s just another feminist who thinks she’s been disenfranchised because Hillary was ‘entitled’ to this nomination. It’s happened with a lot of feminists. Hillary Clinton was going to be president, they looked forward to a female president, and now it appears that they’re losing it. What bothers me most about feminists is that they judge the gender of candidate over the qualifications of the candidate, and I think that ultimately, the sentiment expressed by Ferraro reflects the opinions of a lot of feminists across the nation.  The Clinton campaign should try to stay away from her, and dear God, please…. keep her off of Good Morning America here on out.

2. NY Gov Elliot Spitzer is screwed…that’s all…