March Senate Predictions

I’m going to forecast some Senate races in 2008. These are obviously extremely preliminary, but early polling data can give us a rough estimate over what to expect in the fall. And I decided to be gutsy and not lump them into “Democratic favored” or “leans” categories…

I’ll keep up with Senate race predictions on my new “Senate Races” section.

Democrats Keep: (11 seats)

Pryor (D-AK), Biden (D-DE), Durbin (D-IL), Kerry (D-MA), Levin (D-MI), Reed (D-RI), Rockefeller (D-WV), Harkin (D-IA), Baucus (D-MT), Lautenberg (D-NJ), Johnson (D-SD)

Republicans Keep: (14 seats)

Stevens (R-AK), Sessions (R-AL), Chambliss (R-GA), McConnell (R-KY), Wicker (R-MS), Dole (R-NC), Inhofe (R-OK), Graham (R-SC), Alexander (R-TN), Cornyn (R-TX), Roberts (R-KA), Cochran (R-MS), Enzi (R-WY), Barrasso (R-WY)

Democratic Takeover: Close races but are currently trending Democratic takeover (4 seats)

Norm Coleman (R-MN) to Al Franken, John Sununu (R-NH) to Jeanne Shaheen, Pete Dominici (R-NM) to Tom Udell, Open Seat to Mark Warner (D-VA)

Republican Takeover (1 seat)

Mary Landreau (D-LA) to John Kennedy

Too Close: Close races with no clear front-runner (3 seats)

Bob Schaffer vs. Tom Udall- Colorado, Gordon Smith (R-OR) vs. No Clear Challanger, Susan Collins (R-ME) vs. Tom Allen

I put in the “too close” category because there are truly a few races that will be very close in November, or at least they’re trending that way right now. Republicans Smith, Collins, Sununu and Coleman are vulnerable while Democrats have their eyes on open seats in Virginia & Colorado. If everything goes as planned for the Democrats, they could walk away with a net gain of 5 seats in November, giving them a 56-44 majority in the Senate. It currently looks like, unfortunately, Mary Landreau (D-LA) will lose her seat. In the after math of Hurricane Katrina, thousands of New Orleans residents fled Louisiana, depressing the city’s Democratic electorate. Landreau squeaked by in 2002 (before Katrina). Now it looks like without the base that elected her, she will be unable to win in November. That’s the only bad news for Democrats–and the only reason she is vulnerable is because of the political implications of a natural disaster. Republicans are certainly going to be on the defensive this year.

Once again, this is where I stand as of right now. I’ll post more in depth info about some of these races and new predictions as the year progresses. Public opinion changes, events happen, controversies erupt: you never know what can swing an election.

Al Franken for Minnesota

When I was 15, humorists like Al Franken and Bill Maher spurred my interest in politics and shaped my liberal ideals.

Now Franken, formerly a Saturday Night Live actor and host of liberal Air America Radio, is running to defeat Norm Coleman (R-MN) in 2008. His Minnesota campaign has come on great success, matching Coleman and the RNC in fund raising dollars and rising to the top of the Democratc primary field.

Two people now remain for the Democratic Party nomination (known as the Democratic-Farmer Labor Party (DFL) in MN): Franken and Jack Nelson-Pallemeyer, a professor at the University of St. Thomas. On March 10th, Franken’s top Democratic opponent, trial lawyer Mike Ciresi, dropped out of the race, allowing Franken to focus his energy and step up his campaign against Republican Coleman.

One of the greatest hurdles to his campaign have been questions over Franken’s seriousness: is Franken actually serious about running? In the past he has wrote books criticizing far right ideologues such as Rush Limbaugh, Ann Coulter and Bill O’Reilly, and he has wrote extensively about the bias and simple absurdity of the Fox News Channel. An iconic liberal humorist, is Franken actually running to become a United States Senator in 2008?

With absolutely certainty, the answer is a resounding “yes.” Al Franken has serious plans to end the war in Iraq, bring health care to all Americans, fund our public schools and initiate a massive Apollo-like energy program to start a new era of alternative energy. His campaign has laid out detailed plans at his website.

A recent poll by Rasmussen had Franken leading slightly in a head-to-head match up against Coleman, 49-46 (3% difference). There is still time to grow his lead, but so far Franken is the only Democrat to beat Coleman in the fall.

Building a Democratic majority in the Senate is going to require that we run candidates with a decent chance of winning in November, and that means securing seats in liberal states such as Minnesota. Al Franken looks to be the man to do it; he is indeed a serious contender for the United States Senate.