The 2008 Electoral Map

In the first national poll of presidential preferences, SurveyUSA asked 30,000 respondents in all 50 states, if the election were held today, who would you vote for.

The Results:
Both Democrats Beat John McCain
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Hillary Clinton 276
John McCain 262

States Democrats Pick Up:
West Virginia, Arkansas, New Mexico, Ohio, Florida

States Democrats Lose:
Washington, Oregon, Iowa, Michigan, New Hampshire

View Clinton/McCain Electoral Map
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Barack Obama 280
John McCain 258

States Democrats Pick Up:
Nevada, Colorado, New Mexico, North Dakota, Nebraska, Iowa, Ohio, Virginia

States Democrats Lose:
Florida, Pennsylvania, New Jersey

View Obama/McCain Electoral Map

I’m always skeptical of national polls, but it’s interesting that this is the first conducted in all 50 states for the general election.

Thank You Virginia, Maryland, and DC!

Virginia:
Obama 64%
Clinton 35%Maryland:
Obama 59%
Clinton 36%

District of Columbia:
Obama 75%
Clinton 24%

For the first time, Obama has cut into Hillary Clinton’s base. His momentum is beginning to reach into Clinton’s core constituencies, and pull them apart.

AP:

Obama was getting the backing of two-thirds of men and nearly six in 10 women, according to preliminary data from exit polls of voters conducted for The Associated Press and the television networks. In previous Democratic presidential primaries, Clinton — the New York senator bidding to become the first female president — has carried a slight majority of women while Obama has enjoyed support from slimmer majorities of males.

Among Independents:

One out of every five Democratic primary voters were independent — and those voters chose Barack Obama over Hillary Clinton, 67 to 32 percent….Roughly one out of every five voters in the GOP primary were independent as well – but those voters did not vote for the party’s likely nominee, John McCain, who had been expected to benefit from their support. Instead, independent voters backed Mike Huckabee over McCain, 43 to 34 percent, with Ron Paul pulling in 19 percent.

Maryland: Cardin (D) vs. Steele (R)

Living at the University of Delaware, I have the fortunate opportunity to be just 1.5 miles from Maryland; if I had the initiative I could walk the distance. This is not to say however, that a thin line less than two miles away separates me from the political brawl that is occurring in that state. Maryland is one of the two states where Democrats are vulnerable and shocks many political observers.

While listening to the radio a week ago, I came across an analysis of the Maryland senate race. It fascinated me that a state with a soul that is so inherently liberal can fall to a Republican senate challenger. Remember that Cardin is Democrat in a liberal state and is popular. By all counts, Maryland is not a swing state- but Steele is making it so. What kind of strategy is he implementing?

Cardin’s campaign is making every attempt to paint Steele as a follower of the president. His campaign commercials repeatedly show him in an embrace or shaking hands. This is not really Steele. The only reason why the Republicans have been successful in Maryland is because they have run a very moderate campaign where Steele really distances himself from the president and his party. Steele, opposite Ford in Tennessee, is a fiscal conservative with liberal social values. He is in favor of gay marriage and pro choice, and like his opponent- against the War in Iraq. I suppose it’s interesting then that Maryland voters don’t have much of a choice when they go to the polls this November (both candidates are anti-war).

When listening to that radio show they aired one strategist who spoke with Steele at a cocktail party. Steele told this person (and I paraphrase) “the one thing he regrets is being a Republican in this race.” It fascinates me that we have such an interesting race in Maryland, and voters have the opportunity to choose between liberal Cardin and libertarian Steele. If elected, Steele will be the second African-American in the US Senate (next to US Senator Barack Obama (D-IL)) As much as I want to see the Democrats take back the Senate, and as much as I do support Cardin in his reelection bid, Steele isn’t a bad choice for Maryland either. Unfortunately for Steele, polls are not reassuring as the latest Rasmussen poll of October 26 puts Cardin at 52% and Steele at 43%.