March Senate Predictions

I’m going to forecast some Senate races in 2008. These are obviously extremely preliminary, but early polling data can give us a rough estimate over what to expect in the fall. And I decided to be gutsy and not lump them into “Democratic favored” or “leans” categories…

I’ll keep up with Senate race predictions on my new “Senate Races” section.

Democrats Keep: (11 seats)

Pryor (D-AK), Biden (D-DE), Durbin (D-IL), Kerry (D-MA), Levin (D-MI), Reed (D-RI), Rockefeller (D-WV), Harkin (D-IA), Baucus (D-MT), Lautenberg (D-NJ), Johnson (D-SD)

Republicans Keep: (14 seats)

Stevens (R-AK), Sessions (R-AL), Chambliss (R-GA), McConnell (R-KY), Wicker (R-MS), Dole (R-NC), Inhofe (R-OK), Graham (R-SC), Alexander (R-TN), Cornyn (R-TX), Roberts (R-KA), Cochran (R-MS), Enzi (R-WY), Barrasso (R-WY)

Democratic Takeover: Close races but are currently trending Democratic takeover (4 seats)

Norm Coleman (R-MN) to Al Franken, John Sununu (R-NH) to Jeanne Shaheen, Pete Dominici (R-NM) to Tom Udell, Open Seat to Mark Warner (D-VA)

Republican Takeover (1 seat)

Mary Landreau (D-LA) to John Kennedy

Too Close: Close races with no clear front-runner (3 seats)

Bob Schaffer vs. Tom Udall- Colorado, Gordon Smith (R-OR) vs. No Clear Challanger, Susan Collins (R-ME) vs. Tom Allen

I put in the “too close” category because there are truly a few races that will be very close in November, or at least they’re trending that way right now. Republicans Smith, Collins, Sununu and Coleman are vulnerable while Democrats have their eyes on open seats in Virginia & Colorado. If everything goes as planned for the Democrats, they could walk away with a net gain of 5 seats in November, giving them a 56-44 majority in the Senate. It currently looks like, unfortunately, Mary Landreau (D-LA) will lose her seat. In the after math of Hurricane Katrina, thousands of New Orleans residents fled Louisiana, depressing the city’s Democratic electorate. Landreau squeaked by in 2002 (before Katrina). Now it looks like without the base that elected her, she will be unable to win in November. That’s the only bad news for Democrats–and the only reason she is vulnerable is because of the political implications of a natural disaster. Republicans are certainly going to be on the defensive this year.

Once again, this is where I stand as of right now. I’ll post more in depth info about some of these races and new predictions as the year progresses. Public opinion changes, events happen, controversies erupt: you never know what can swing an election.

Foster Wins!

On Saturday’s Special Election, Democrat Bill Foster beat Republican Jim Oberweis, 51-49.A few reasons why this is such a remarkable victory:

1. IL-14 is an extremely conservative district in the heartland of Illinois. At it’s center, Dixon, IL is the home of iconic Republican president, Ronald Reagan.

2. In 2004, President Bush won reelection by a 56-44 margin.

3. THIS WAS FORMER HOUSE SPEAKER DENNIS HASTERT’S SEAT!!!!

One final note here, I would like to express my discontent with the Chicago Sun-Times. I learned that they endorsed Oberweis for the 14th District. This upsets me because the Sun-Times is supposed to be left leaning, and the Trib is supposed to be right. Why the hell is my Chicago Sun-Times endorsing a Republican congressional candidate? Especially a rank and fine one? If they wanted to endorse a Republican, there are plenty of Illinois Republican candidates who are more moderate and not sleeze-bags.

Super Tuesday Reflections

Reflecting back, Super Tuesday was amazing. I got to spend the day working to get out the vote at the University of Delaware, and in the end, Obama won the state.

Well, I found a couple awesome videos that I want to post. Two states that I care about–Delaware & Illinois–projected by NBC News in the Obama column. Great stuff, lots of meaning to me at least : )

Obama wins Delaware!

Obama wins Illinois!

The 2008 Electoral Map

In the first national poll of presidential preferences, SurveyUSA asked 30,000 respondents in all 50 states, if the election were held today, who would you vote for.

The Results:
Both Democrats Beat John McCain
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________
Hillary Clinton 276
John McCain 262

States Democrats Pick Up:
West Virginia, Arkansas, New Mexico, Ohio, Florida

States Democrats Lose:
Washington, Oregon, Iowa, Michigan, New Hampshire

View Clinton/McCain Electoral Map
__________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Barack Obama 280
John McCain 258

States Democrats Pick Up:
Nevada, Colorado, New Mexico, North Dakota, Nebraska, Iowa, Ohio, Virginia

States Democrats Lose:
Florida, Pennsylvania, New Jersey

View Obama/McCain Electoral Map

I’m always skeptical of national polls, but it’s interesting that this is the first conducted in all 50 states for the general election.

Bill Foster: A Moderate Voice for Illinois’ 14th District

Democrats… it’s time to take Dennis Hastert’s old seat!

Illinois will have a special congressional election on March 8th to fill the seat of former Republican Speaker of the House Dennis Hastert.

Illinois’ 14th district is a conservative bastion resting in the North Central heart of Illinois. It’s rural, traditional values Republicans who sent Denny Hastert to Capital Hill. Geographically, the 14th district touches the Chicago Democratic congressional strongholds to the east, and spans the width of the state to the Mississippi River in west. It starts in the outskirts of the Northwest suburbs (a few miles from my old home in Barrington) and is gerrymandered southeast.

This year is about change is Washington, and guess what? A Democrat now leads a Republican in the polls in a Republican stronghold.

Democrat Bill Foster, a scientist, is leading Republican milkman Jim Oberweis in recent polls, but not by much. (Oberweis owns a famous Chicago dairy chain–great ice cream by the way…)

A Global Strategy Group poll found:
Bill Foster: 45
Jim Oberweis: 41

A narrow lead to be sure.

I met Jim Oberweis at a Republican party fund raiser two years ago during his run for the governorship of Illinois. He is indeed a great guy with a great personality, but to put bluntly, he scares me. The man is a rank and file Republican. He holds strict fiscally and socially conservative values that stand in sharp contrast to what I believe. But more certainly, I have never forgiven him for this commercial he aired in his 2002 run for the United States Senate:

Oberweis 2002 Ad.

I was in high school when I watched that commercial, and I remember thinking then as I do now, wow, what a asshole. The reality is, Oberweis is a failure. He ran unsuccessfully for both the governorship of Illinois and the Republican nomination for the United States Senate. (Losing to Jack Ryan who later dropped out when details of his sex life emerged. The Illinois Republican party would later nominate Maryland carpetbagger Alan Keyes to lose to Illinois State Senator Barack Obama).

Bill Foster is the alternative. He stands opposed to the Iraq war, for affordable health care, fiscal responsibility and for border security. He is a political moderate, neither liberal nor conservative, who won’t vote with the rank and file of the Democratic party and only with the interests of Illinois’ 14th district in mind.

Here is his bio and a commercial, check out his website for more info.

Foster for Congress ad.

Donate to Foster for Congress

Illinois, 12/21

Chicago Tribune, Dec. 17, 2007
Obama 50%
Clinton 25%

According to the Tribune:

Favorite son Barack Obama holds a 2-1 advantage over native daughter Hillary Clinton among Democrats looking to cast ballots in Illinois’ Feb. 5 presidential primary

Bean the Obvious Choice for Illinois’ 8th

Background Infromation: Melissa Bean is the Democratic Congresswoman representing Illinois’ 8th District. What makes IL-8 so special is that it’s actually a district where the Democratic Congresswoman is vulnerable. Expressing their confidence they can win back the district, the RNC last year gave Bean the “Lame Duck Congressman Award.” Republican Phil Crane previously held Bean’s seat for 32 years, before being unseated by a mere two percent. IL-8 is considered one of the most conservative districts in Illinois- that has led to the RNC dumping millions into this races to ensure Bean’s 2006 opponent’s victory. Here is my response:

I am amazed at how desperate the National Republican Party has become. In Illinois’ 8th Congressional District (my home district), Democratic Congresswoman Melissa Bean is facing investment banker, Republican David McSweeney. The McSweeney campaign is spewing nothing more than negative attacks against Bean in a last ditch effort to win. McSweeney and the Republicans ought to be ashamed since it’s their brand of campaign scum that makes politics in this country so corrupt- and disillusions so many American voters.

Consider the early stages of McSweeney’s campaign. When he was in a crowded field of candidates in the Republican primary, he was the only one who refused to sign a campaign pledge against negative campaigning…. and he won. Winning by campaigning negatively is like punching someone in the dark; McSweeney is man without morals, ethics and common decency. He does not exemplify the qualities needed to represent Illinois’ 8th Congressional District.

Furthermore, he can’t even tout the endorsements of major newspapers or organizations. His failure to secure major conservative endorsements (such as the U.S. Chamber of Commerce) testifies to the fact that he is nothing more than a conservative ideologue with a close-minded agenda. Allow me to elaborate on “close-minded.”

If you go McSweeney’s campaign website, you will find that his positions on the issues are based on a “common sense conservative platform.” It’s amazing how willing he is to so openly demonstrate his bias by labeling his platform as “common sense conservative.” It’s contradictory that he claims that he’ll represent 8th district voters when he acknowledges that his positions on the issues are strictly conservative. Would this be your voice in Washington?

Melissa Bean is the alternative. She is a centrist, independent voice in Congress who doesn’t follow any ideology and listens to the concerns of her constituents. A vote for David McSweeney is a vote for a conservative ideology, and politicians who follow any ideology verbatim only contribute to the scum of our system. Mr. McSweeney is scum.

So if McSweeney embodies the far right and Bean is the center, McSweeney’s only defense is to reach out to moderate voters by painting Bean as a liberal ideologue. In these last few weeks of campaigning, he is launching yet another negative campaign (as he did in the primary) by painting Bean as a “wannabe Nancy Pelosi” and in one mailer, a hippie liberal with a peace pipe. 8th district voters are smarter to know that Bean’s votes for CAFTA (the Central American Free Trade Agreement) and for lower taxes make her among the most moderate Congresswomen in the House.

If he thinks that labeling Bean in this light will be effective, than we must conclude that David McSweeney thinks were stupid. We all know different. We have a congresswoman who exemplifies the characteristics of a statesmen, and who listens to her constituents and not her party nor ideology. I am proud to be represented by Melissa Bean.